Prometheus · forecasting that keeps the receipts
If we think we understand what is happening, Prometheus says what should happen next, timestamps it, keeps the original forecast, and comes back later to see whether the confidence was deserved.
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The simple idea
We did not want a system that could always explain itself after the event. Prometheus forces the uncomfortable bit to happen first: make a clear, time-bounded forecast while the answer is still unknown.
Write down what we expect, how confident we are, what evidence we used and what competing outcome could prove more plausible.
The original forecast stays frozen. New evidence can be added later, but the prediction itself does not get polished after the fact.
When the window closes, Prometheus looks for later evidence, records the outcome and updates the calibration record — including the misses.
Causal reasoning · beneath the forecast
A forecast says what may happen next. The causal core asks a different question: if a specific part of the mechanism changed, what downstream effects should follow? Keeping those questions separate makes the forecast more inspectable and easier to challenge.
EarthNet supplies the current state. Supported causal links are declared explicitly, including their direction, strength, confidence and evidence references.
The compiled Rust core evaluates what changes under a chosen intervention and traces the downstream effects without confusing the scenario with an observed fact.
Prometheus can carry the resulting mechanism, uncertainty and provenance into the existing forecast ledger, then let later evidence decide whether the reasoning held.
Featured by Prometheus
Prometheus can choose a small public set worth following: confidence matters, but so do calibration, independent evidence and whether the outcome can be judged cleanly inside a useful time window.
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Selecting current featured forecasts…
New Zealand · our country-level proving ground
Prometheus produces a daily New Zealand state that brings several evidence families together before giving a short interpretation. Seismic activity, volcanic status, incoming weather and ocean context stay separate enough that we can still see where each conclusion came from.
It is deliberately careful. An earthquake concentration is described as a concentration, not quietly promoted into a precursor. Missing river telemetry remains unknown, not “normal”. Official agencies remain authoritative.
A short national view built from the latest public evidence available to EarthNet.
When something changes
The daily state is the calm overview. EarthNet also watches for meaningful change between cycles, so Prometheus and a human reviewer can pay attention when the evidence moves rather than being buried in repeated unchanged events.
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Magnitude, depth, felt reports, intensity and later official revisions can change the significance of the same earthquake after the first detection.
Official status remains central, while guarded measurement changes can be tracked against their own baselines without turning an anomaly into an eruption claim.
Atmospheric instability, wind and later warnings can be followed as a developing evidence chain rather than flattened into one red or green alert.
The open ledger
Featured forecasts sit above because they passed a stronger presentation gate. The wider ledger stays visible because removing lower-confidence commitments would make the track record look cleaner than it really is.
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Outcome history
The forecast stays as committed. The later outcome is attached underneath it. Confirmations, misses and calibration all belong in the same public history.
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One country or the whole world
EarthNet can watch the whole world or narrow its attention to a country, region or operating area. New Zealand is our current country-level proving ground. The same architecture can be configured around other geographies as suitable public or private evidence sources are available.
Why this matters
“Predictive”, “causal” and “intelligent” are easy words to put on a website. Prometheus is our attempt to make those claims earn their keep. The evidence can be inspected. The forecast is timestamped. The alternative stays visible. The outcome is added later. And the record gets more useful as it grows.
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